The Forward Premium Puzzle Only Emerges Gradually
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle
We offer an explanation for the forward premium puzzle in foreign exchange markets based upon investor overconfidence. In the model, overconfident individuals overreact to their information about future inflation, which causes greater overshooting in the forward rate than in the spot rate. Thus, when agents observe a signal of higher future inflation, the consequent rise in the forward premium ...
متن کاملCan Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?∗
Under rational expectations and risk neutrality the linear projection of exchange rate change on the forward premium has a unit coefficient. However, empirical estimates of this coefficient are significantly less than one and often negative. We investigate whether replacing rational expectations by discounted least squares (or “perpetual”) learning can explain the result. We calculate the asymp...
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We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to control for the influence of an unobserved factor that can be decomposed into a contract-specific and a ti...
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A standard empirical finding is that expected changes in exchange rates and interest rate differentials across countries are negatively related, implying that uncovered interest rate parity is violated in the data. This article provides new empirical evidence that suggests that violations of uncovered interest rate parity, and its economic implications, depend on the sign of the interest rate d...
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Recent tests of stochastic dominance of several orders proposed by Linton, Maasoumi and Whang (2003) are applied to reexamine the equity premium puzzle. An advantage of this nonparametric framework is that it provides a means to assess whether the existence of a premium is due to particular cardinal choices of either the utility function or the underlying returns distribution, or both. The appr...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2007
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.967298